Maple Leafs depth chart 1.0: What are the biggest needs this offseason? - The Athletic

Oct 26, 2024

The Toronto Maple Leafs have their new coach, which means it’s roster-building time.

What should Brendan Shanahan, Brad Treliving, and the rest of the Leafs front office be looking for this offseason? Well, that depends.

UFAs: Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi

Technically, the Leafs could do very little here. They could re-sign pending RFAs, Nick Robertson, Connor Dewar, and Noah Gregor, let Bertuzzi and Domi both walk in free agency, and that would be that.

But that’s obviously not going to do it. Not with cash to spend. Not after the playoffs. Not after the offence stalled again.

Advertisement

So what needs to change?

It all starts with Mitch Marner and where the Leafs go from here with the 27-year-old.

Marner may return. Maybe that’s because he refuses to waive his no-movement clause. Maybe it’s because Shanahan and Treliving decide they want to see how Marner performs under Craig Berube’s leadership. Or maybe they decide there’s no trade out there, given the extenuating circumstances, that makes the team better (or different) enough to make it worth dealing a player of Marner’s calibre.

In which case, Marner reclaims a top-six right wing role.

If not, and there’s a trade to be had, ideally the Leafs are bringing back some combination of a promising young forward earning less, a centre, future assets, and the cap savings to upgrade elsewhere or a top-pairing defenceman, also earning less, future assets, and the cap savings to upgrade elsewhere.

Maybe it’s a forward and a defenceman, who combine to pull in as many cap dollars as Marner. (I get the conceit of a Marner for Juuse Saros swap, but the idea of making Saros, a 29-year-old undersized goaltender due a big raise, the centerpiece of a deal isn’t as appealing to me as finding a more foundational piece elsewhere.)

Will that be possible given the circumstances? Maybe. The Leafs only need one team to be in love with Marner (and for Marner to love that team back) for there to be a pathway to a trade. But it likely won’t be easy.

Regardless, move on from Marner and the Leafs are going to have a giant hole to fill up front. It’s unlikely they can fill that hole with one player. The chances of receiving a player of Marner’s calibre back in a trade are slim. But it’s possible the Leafs can take Marner’s cap dollars and spread them around and get better/different that way.

They can hope to fill his many jobs by committee.

Advertisement

Ideally for the Leafs, all of the Marner machinations take place before or right around July 1, so that needs/cap space will be clear ahead of free agency. A prolonged standoff wouldn’t be great, for either side. (If they find a trading partner, the Leafs will presumably allow Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, to speak to said team about an extension. No team is doing this kind of a deal without that long-term certainty.)

Then there’s John Tavares’ situation to ponder.

GO DEEPER

John Tavares talks Leafs future as he reinforces his value with Team Canada: 'I'll give it everything'

It’s not ideal for the Leafs to allocate $11 million Tavares’ way, especially as he enters his age-34 season.

If he were amenable to a trade, and the Leafs could find a buyer willing to absorb some or all of his contract (to a place he’s willing to play), the possibilities to remake the roster expand.

However, if the Leafs have to eat a large chunk of the price tag and still have to replace Tavares at centre, are they really coming out ahead? If the Leafs retained, say, $5.5 million in a Tavares trade, could they find someone better to take his spot with the remaining $5.5 million?

Again, a lot of “ifs” there. I, for one, can’t see Tavares wanting to move, but it’s worth the ask.

If the answer is no, the time is now – finally – for the Leafs to build better support around him at centre, whether through trade or free agency. Maybe that’s with the addition of someone who pushes Tavares down the depth chart, where the matchups and deployment aren’t quite as onerous.

One such theoretical: Pending UFA Steven Stamkos. (Stamkos is actually six months older than Tavares and has played the wing a bunch in recent years, so even that fit isn’t without questions.)

The Leafs could also set their sights much higher for free agency next summer, when Tavares’ contract expires, with Leon Draisaitl. He can sign an extension with the Oilers on July 1 though.

Advertisement

Maybe in adding a legitimate 2C, whether via free agency or trade, the Leafs can finally lighten Tavares’ workload by moving him to the wing. Or maybe the play is to add a better two-way third-line centre who can alleviate some of Tavares’ defensive responsibilities.

That was the thing in the playoffs: Tavares was asked to do most of the heavy lifting defensively and handled it about as well as the Leafs could have hoped. He just didn’t have the offence to match.

There are reasons to bring back both Domi and Bertuzzi.

Domi, in particular, found a real connection with Auston Matthews and showed he could play some centre if needed. Trade Marner and, depending on the return, Domi could slot in more permanently on Matthews’ right wing. Domi is also 29 and undersized, with real limitations that probably aren’t going to get better with age. His playoffs were good, not great: Domi was tied for the team lead in scoring with four points. However, even with an offensive zone faceoff percentage of almost 83 percent, the Leafs won only 51 percent of the expected goals when he was on the ice.

Bertuzzi had four points himself but only one goal. This, after a rollercoaster of a regular season. He’s also 29, with a checkered injury history.

Domi and Bertuzzi are both going to want pricey, multi-year deals.

That was part of Bertuzzi’s reasoning for taking a one-year deal last summer: There was hope, with the cap going up, of procuring more in 2024.

After the way he surged in the postseason, the Leafs need to keep one top-six winger spot open for Matthew Knies. They might even want to keep a second spot available for Bobby McMann, who feels like the kind of player Berube will like.

As for the bottom of the lineup, the Leafs need to bet on more growth internally from Robertson, Dewar, and Pontus Holmberg. With even a smidge more ice time (including more regular opportunity on the power play), from 11.5 minutes per game to say, 13, Robertson could deliver 20 goals for the Leafs on the cheap. That said, at 5-foot-9 and 178 pounds, Robertson doesn’t exactly ooze the “heavy” identity of the Leafs new head coach. Is he someone who gets moved in a reshaping of the forward group this summer, one that makes the Leafs bigger and edgier?

Advertisement

Holmberg would really be the ideal fourth-line centre for this team. He’s young (25), trustworthy, cheap ($800,000 on the cap), and not quite punchy enough offensively to centre a third line.

The problem: The Leafs already have David Kämpf around as the 4C who can play no higher in the lineup. (Does that change with Berube?)

Regardless, Holmberg will have a spot somewhere in the opening-night lineup.

The Leafs should add at least one more veteran for bottom-six duty, someone who can chip in a bit offensively, kill penalties, defend, and bring a physical element.

Ryan Reaves, scratched in Games 6 and 7 in the playoffs, should become more of an option at this point than a lineup lock, the 13th forward at best. Berube may see otherwise though.

Do the Leafs leave room for one of Fraser Minten or Easton Cowan to claim a spot at training camp?

UFAs: Joel Edmundson, Ilya Lyubushkin, TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano

If there’s one thing that Treliving excelled at as GM in Calgary, it was building quality blue lines. (Year one in Toronto was somewhat of a struggle, though the group did defend well against the Bruins in the playoffs.)

Ideally, the Leafs are adding not one but two top-four defencemen – one to play with Morgan Rielly, another to play with Jake McCabe.

They could check the who-plays-with-Rielly box by re-signing Lyubushkin. He had a solid postseason, but his limitations with the puck limit how much he can play. What the Leafs really need is someone better, someone who plays a simple game but who’s not a black hole with the puck. Someone who can make Rielly better. Someone like Brodie from four (or even two) years ago.

Pending free agent Chris Tanev checks that box. He’ll also be 35 in December, has a long injury history, and will come with a pricey contract. And yet he would help the Leafs in many ways.

Advertisement

Can they do better than that somehow?

Landing a true No. 1 would be the dream for the Leafs. Even a quasi-No. 1, someone just below star status, would help immensely.

Treliving could start with a call to his former team and inquire about the availability (and cost) of MacKenzie Weegar.

The sticky stuff with Weegar: He’s already 30 and his contract, signed by Treliving, is long – seven more years, with a cap hit of $6.25 million. He would be a good fit in the short to medium term. So would his Flames partner, Rasmus Andersson, who has only two years left on his deal at $4.55 million on the cap.

That McCabe can play both the left and right sides allows Treliving to consider more candidates for top-four duty. (McCabe is extension-eligible on July 1. Those talks, according to a league source, have yet to begin.)

The Leafs can always fall back on Simon Benoit as a partner for McCabe, though, like Lyubushkin, his limitations impact how much he can play.

Is this the summer the Leafs finally give up on Timothy Liljegren, who needs a new contract and holds arbitration rights as a pending RFA? It feels like time after another blah postseason that saw Liljegren play only 15 minutes in Game 7 (and he was scratched earlier in the series).

I might hold on for another season just to be sure. Liljegren just turned 25 and still hasn’t hit 200 regular-season games in the NHL. Again and again, we’ve seen teams, including the Leafs, get burned by cutting bait too early on defencemen who kind of look like Liljegren.

Talks on a new deal have yet to begin, according to a league source. His role will be an important factor in determining whether to sign ahead of arbitration.

What seems like a lock: The Leaf defence will get bigger in a more permanent way.

Does that mean bringing back Edmundson, who won a Cup with Berube in St. Louis? He’ll be 31 next month and figures to draw a lot of money in free agency.

UFAs: Ilya Samsonov, Martin Jones

Making $766,667, Joseph Woll could deliver huge value to the Leafs next season – if he can stay on the ice.

Treliving rightly highlighted that concern at the end of the season and said the team would need to explore all avenues to keep Woll healthy.

Regardless, the Leafs GM needs to locate another goaltender who can play and maybe play a lot. The Leafs could talk themselves into acquiring a dependable-ish 1B to play behind or alongside Woll, someone like Alex Nedeljkovic or Laurent Brossoit.

Advertisement

Doing that would allow Woll, who turns 26 in July, to claim the crease for himself and, crucially, keep the Leafs from spending assets in a trade, not to mention precious cap dollars.

That feels like a dicey bet given the health concerns with Woll, not to mention his inexperience. Woll played only 25 games last season and finished with a .907 save percentage. His performance in Games 5 and 6 against the Bruins highlighted his upside. The injury that kept him out of Game 7 was indicative of some of the downside.

Netting someone better than Nedeljkovic or Brossoit would require a trade.

With one year left on his contract, Saros might be the most attractive option. Is there a Saros trade that doesn’t involve Marner? And subsequently, should the Leafs pay Saros the kind of extension that will surely come with a cap hit of at least $6 million and potentially much more?

Jacob Markstrom, the goalie that Treliving signed once upon a time in Calgary, might be had. Markstrom is 34 and has only two years left on his contract with a cap hit of $6 million.

A more enticing option: Linus Ullmark, who has a year left on his contract with Boston with a cap hit of $5 million.

The Bruins need to pay Jeremy Swayman, a pending RFA, this summer and might not want to allocate additional cap space to someone in Ullmark who may not play in the postseason. But would they deal such a goalie to their division rival? And for what?

The position is obviously a massive part of the offseason for the Leafs.

Were there less drama around Marner, etc., it would be the biggest question of the offseason after the Ilya Samsonov gambit fell apart.

(Top photo: Kevin Sousa / NHLI via Getty Images)

–Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, PuckPedia, and Cap Friendly

Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. Try a week on us.

Jonas Siegel is a staff writer on the Maple Leafs for The Athletic. Jonas joined The Athletic in 2017 from the Canadian Press, where he served as the national hockey writer. Previously, he spent nearly a decade covering the Leafs with AM 640, TSN Radio and TSN.ca. Follow Jonas on Twitter @jonassiegel