How the Maple Leafs’ top prospects might fit on the NHL roster next season - The Athletic

Oct 16, 2024

While decisions on the immediate future of superstar winger Mitch Marner could lead to multiple dominos falling (or not) at the top of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ roster, what’s clear is that there will be plenty of turnover on next season’s roster.

There are unrestricted free agents in the top six who may or may not be back, four UFAs on the blue line, all of whom spent time in the top six this season, and multiple UFAs in goal. Then there’s the multiple restricted free agents whose futures can still be thrown in that big pile of “TBD.” Add in the possibility of trades, which, now that general manager Brad Treliving seems to have more of a green light to shake up the roster, could be coming.

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So, are there internal options who can aid the Leafs? In a league with a hard salary cap, they are no strangers to having to find ways to make the most out of limited salary-cap room.

For added insight, Leafs assistant general manager of player development Hayley Wickenheiser and Marlies head coach John Gruden weighed in on the development of multiple prospects and what their immediate short-term future could hold, whether with the Leafs or elsewhere.

Drafted No. 28 in 20235-foot-10, 171 pounds2023-24 statistics: 54 games, 34-62-96 in the OHL regular season; 18 games, 10-24-34 in the OHL playoffs

Almost anything Cowan could have accomplished just one year after being drafted, he did: OHL regular-season and playoffs MVP, CHL first all-star team and OHL champion were among Cowan’s accolades from the best season by a Leafs prospect since Marner won many of the same awards in 2015-16.

“His motor and his propensity to be able to do everything at a high level of intensity,” Wickenheiser said about what she saw from Cowan. “He’s fearless when he steps on the ice.”

Perhaps it’s no surprise that Cowan has various shades of Marner’s game in his own, whether it’s the creativity with the puck or the tenaciousness on the penalty kill.

Cowan is the real deal. If he can continue his development and trajectory, he should have a bright NHL future. The question now is, can he also follow in Marner’s path and move to the NHL one year after being drafted?

“I know that, in his mind, he would like to play in the NHL next year. And that’s of course what we would like to be able to do. But he has to come in and earn his spot and contribute night in and night out. That’s where we stand as an organization,” Wickenheiser said.

Because Cowan is hardly a single-tooled player who relies on offensive skill alone, a top-six spot isn’t necessary in order to make an impact. The Leafs saw a lot in Cowan’s game to suggest he could handle a more physical, bottom-six role.

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What if — and this is an ocean-sized “if” — Marner is moved this summer and the Leafs try to address their goaltending and defence holes in the trade return? That would leave an equally ocean-sized hole at right wing. The trickle-down effect could lead to some right wingers under contract getting promoted (Could Calle Jarnkrok play a consistent top six role?) and a bottom-six job on the wing becoming available.

Of course, the likelihood of every prospect on this list making the NHL as a full-timer is dependent on their training camp. The fact that Cowan lasted so long in last year’s camp as one of the final cuts was in part to offer increased exposure to the Leafs’ way of life, sure. But it also suggests the organization felt he’d be comfortable keeping up with NHL players.

That bodes well for his immediate future. If you look at how dominant Cowan was in the OHL and the fact that he’s ineligible for the AHL, why wouldn’t the Leafs give him every opportunity to capitalize on his confidence and give him a shot in the NHL next season?

So much depends on what type of forwards Treliving adds in free agency. But if the Leafs’ coaching staff don’t feel there’s enough scoring in the bottom six to start the season? Shooting Cowan out of the cannon and giving him the freedom to try and create offence remains a strong possibility.

If Cowan can do more than just hang among NHL players, but also make a difference, it seems likely he would get more than just a nine-game trial on his entry-level deal. He feels like a candidate to get a half-season of NHL experience, go lead Canada at the world juniors and then re-assess afterward.

“I put my money on his ability to do (make the Leafs this season). But we have a very good team with depth,” Wickenheiser said. “But the one thing I’ve learned about Easton is not to count him out of anything.”

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Drafted No. 64 in 20206-feet, 179 pounds2023-24 statistics: 68 games, 8-31-39 in the AHL

The need for right-shot defencemen in the NHL is a constant one, right?

Let’s not forget that the Leafs have, in their system, an intelligent and competitive young blueliner who just so happens to shoot right and is coming off a very solid AHL season. The Marlies were proud of the steps Niemelä took with his work ethic, his understanding of the North American game and the increased physicality he added in the difficult areas of the ice.

“He can be a little more nasty than people give him credit for,” Wickenheiser said.

Niemelä is not going to have the easiest path to an NHL spot next season. Treliving has designs on adding pieces to the blue line (as he should) and his preference is to add size. Niemelä must continue to show the organization how he plays far bigger than he stands. That’s what the Leafs are going to be looking for in training camp. Niemelä’s summer work in Finland will focus almost solely on getting bigger and stronger.

But perhaps there is a scenario in which the Leafs spend heavily in free agency on one blueliner (Brett Pesce?) and don’t allocate as much cash to spread around the rest of the back end?

If there is one defenceman the organization believes is capable of moving from the Marlies to a third-pair NHL spot next season, it’s Niemelä.

Sometimes as a prospect earns professional experience, a team’s development staff to takes its foot off the gas and doesn’t spend as much time trying to point them in the right direction. Part of becoming a pro is learning pro habits for yourself, after all.

Except in the case of Niemelä.

“With Topi, we haven’t backed off,” Wickenheiser said.

That’s not because the Leafs feel he needs extra guidance on how to become an NHL player. The Leafs are pushing him with extra workouts and information because they know he can handle it and they know how high his ceiling is. He’s closer to the NHL than many might believe. Wickenheiser praised Niemelä’s high offensive IQ and his ability to do things offensively that no other Leafs defence prospect can.

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“We have a high belief that (Niemelä) can make the jump,” Wickenheiser said. “And so our staff is all over him around strength and his ability to play in contact, to make stops to not get pushed around.”

There is precedent for Niemelä playing for the Leafs next season. In 2017-18, defenceman Travis Dermott played 37 games for the Leafs (more than he did in the AHL that season) after just one full season with the Marlies.

Are the Leafs a different team now than they were in 2018? You betcha. But did Dermott become a serviceable member of the blue line? Again, you betcha.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Niemelä follows a similar path as Dermott and plays in the NHL next season.

Drafted No. 135 in 20226-foot-2, 192 pounds2023-24 statistics: 67 games, 19-22-41 in the KHL

Outside of Cowan, Grebyonkin had arguably the best season by a Leafs prospect. His development took a leap as he produced and played in a league not often kind to young players.

“(Grebyonkin) played pretty banged up through the playoffs. And he showed his resiliency and his mental toughness as well,” Wickenheiser said.

And so Grebyonkin has what not every player on the list has: Two full seasons of experience in a very good professional league. That should see him enter Leafs training camp not fazed by the opportunity. Wickenheiser, for one, is a fan of Grebyonkin’s massive sense of self-confidence.

Given his recent experience, his tools as a straight-line player who can move well with the puck by getting creative, and his physical edge, he should be seen as one of the dark horses to make the Leafs out of camp. Grebyonkin just utilizes so many elements in his game that new head coach Craig Berube could covet.

“He’s shown he’ll fight a couple times this year. He’ll go into the tough areas. He’s a bit of an atypical skilled Russian player in that he has a real edge to him, which is something that’s really unique,” Wickenheiser said.

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Grebyonkin will arrive back in Toronto midway through June to spend the summer working with the Leafs staff. This summer will be pivotal for him to understand the demands of North American professional hockey.

“There’s still a little bit of maturing to do off the ice,” Wickenheiser said. “He’s pretty raw in terms of his movement patterns, his skating ability.”

Given those demands, it might be too early for Grebyonkin to play in the NHL. But I’m betting on him making as hard of a push as any other prospect.

Drafted No. 122 in 20226-foot-7, 223 pounds2023-24 statistics: 41 games, 21-11-7 with a .913 save percentage in the AHL

The towering and athletic goalie got called up to the NHL and didn’t play in 2024, but things should be different this season.

The Leafs likely will add a third goalie to play behind a tandem of Joseph Woll and another addition. However, in case of multiple injuries, as was the case midway through this past season, Hildeby has shown he can make strong enough reads and use his mobility to stop professional shots.

Behind the scenes, the organization was pleased with his development this season, buoyed by his no-nonsense attitude.

“To see him grow mentally and physically will be huge because he’s a great young man. He cares. The consistency will be the big thing for him to improve on. I think he’s going to be a huge part of the Leafs’ future,” Gruden said.

Because of the uncertainty that comes with bringing in a new goalie, and Woll’s recent injury history, it’s too soon to anoint Hildeby as a true No. 3 in the organization. But a handful of NHL games next season feels like a given. He’s ready for it.

Drafted No. 38 in 20226-foot-2, 192 pounds2023-24 statistics: 43 games, 22-26-48 in the WHL

All signs point to Minten being the Leafs’ third-line centre of the future.

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But that probably won’t happen on a full-time basis next season. Not if the Leafs enter the season with David Kampf and Pontus Holmberg still on the bottom six. Both are responsible players (even if the former lacks offensive touches), and Berube is known to want his players to lock down things defensively.

Minten has improved, showing more offence and power in his game in the WHL after a four-game NHL trial to start the season. Without elite offensive tools that can immediately change an NHL game, he could still benefit from a full AHL season to acclimatize to the pro game and better understand his role.

Injuries will dictate call-ups, and Minten should get a nod or two, and probably a similar amount of NHL games as last season. But being an all-round, defensively sound centre in the WHL is different than being one at the pro level. Give him some time.

Drafted No. 84 in 20196-feet, 201 pounds2023-24 statistics: 65 games, 5-14-19 in the AHL

Kokkonen was all the rage in last year’s camp when then-head coach Sheldon Keefe pumped his tires multiple times and called him “the surprise” of camp.

While there was undoubtedly some lip service being paid to build up a player whose confidence was at an all-time low after an ECHL stint in 2022-23, Keefe still wouldn’t have done so if he wasn’t impressed by the player. Kokkonen plays a mistake-free, unglamorous game that reduces the amount of panic in his own zone.

Gruden used to coach Adam Pelech with the New York Islanders and said he sees a lot of Pelech’s smarts and versatility in Kokkonen’s game.

“You can put (Kokkonen) in all situations,” Gruden said. “He does a lot of things that don’t show up on the score sheet but are so valuable to a team.”

My sense is that when Marshall Rifai was called up to the Leafs in February and played two games, it was a coin flip between him and Kokkonen for that spot.

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The odds will be in Kokkonen’s favour to get the nod next season as the first call-up on the blue line from the Marlies. Even if the Leafs add veteran tweeners in free agency — as most teams do — Kokkonen’s brain and uber-safe game should force him to the front of the pack.

He might not have enough high-end attributes to lock up a Leafs roster spot out of training camp. But he also might have made enough fans in the organization to cause them to sign one less one of those aforementioned veteran tweeners. Going back and forth between the NHL and the AHL should be in the cards for Kokkonen this season.

(Top photo of Easton Cowan: Chris Tanouye / Getty Images)

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Joshua Kloke is a staff writer who has covered the Maple Leafs and Canadian soccer for The Athletic since 2016. Previously, he was a freelance writer for various publications, including Sports Illustrated. Follow Joshua on Twitter @joshuakloke